On the eve of the April 14 presidential election, Venezuelans are speculating what comes next for the oil powerhouse; scenarios for the country range from serious to frightening

On Sunday, April 14, Venezuelans head to the polls to chose between interim president Nicolas Maduro, and Governor Henrique Capriles of Miranda state.

A mere 10-day campaign started out with Maduro as the clear frontrunner, originally possessing a 20-point advantage in polls over Capriles. In recent days, that advantage flipped according to Argentine consulting firm Datamática, giving Capriles an advantage over his competitor by nearly 5 percentage points – 39.7% for Capriles 34.9% for Maduro.

Before passing away, Chavez chose for Maduro to succeed him as interim president. A recording of Chavez asking people to vote for Maduro often booms out of loudspeakers on downtown Caracas streets before playing Maduro campaign jingles. While many believe this message was the key to a Maduro victory on April 14; it may also be the root cause of his departure from office.

Scenarios being whispered around Caracas vary widely. Most revolve around a Maduro victory. Below is a selection of some of the most popular:

Coup d’etat?

Technically, according to the Venezuelan constitution, the head of the National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, should have been named Acting President. There’s no love lost between Cabello and Maduro, who reportedly do not see eye to eye on the running of the country.

Diosdado Cabello, whose name translates into English as “God-given Hair,” has been with Chavez since 1992 when the helpeld the leader stage a failed coup. Over the years he has maintained his strong military ties, including with members of the military who reportedly do not hold Maduro in high esteem.

“Chavez was the glue that united several factions,” explains Central University of Venezuela Professor Maria Teresa Romero. “Maduro does not have the full support of the party. It is unlikely he will last the full six-year term; an internal coup d’etat is entirely possible.”

This is the least likely of possible scenarios – no one benefits from it, including members of the opposition who simply want a fair election.

Another Unceremonious Departure

A more likely turn of events is that after one to two years, there is an intervention (private not public) in which Maduro is convinced to step down. Maduro faces a tough crowd within his own party. Many have been left unsatisfied with questions revolving around Chavez’ death. The first and foremost being, when did he pass away? The government announced it on March 5, but many believe it was much earlier – in late December.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that for ten days after his death, Chavez was made available for public viewing. Eye-witnesses say he looked like a wax figure. Embalming of that type generally takes between 50 and 70 days. Doing the math, a late December passing would make sense for that timeline. Further supporting a late December timeline is the fact that a marble tomb complete with fountain was built to hold the corpse of Chavez in the Cuartel de Montana, a military fortress in the 23 de enero neighborhood of Caracas. A construction this elaborate is physically impossible within 10 days.

Finally, many wonder if Chavez’ corpse is actually being held at the fort and there is still no word on where his burial site will be. With the party faithful clamoring for answers to these and many more questions, fissures within what was once Chavismo are certainly possible in the near term.

Brain Drain?

According to Venezuela’s National Electoral Commission (Spanish Acronym CNE), 70,951 Venezuelans living abroad voted in the Oct. 7 election. Of those voters, 61,229 cast their ballots for Henrique Capriles – a number larger than the population of the Venezuelan state of Amazonas – while just 5,716 cast their ballots for Chavez.

These numbers are indicative of what may happen, should Capriles lose this second round. “If Capriles loses by a wide margin, and does not contest electoral injustices, we could see yet another wave of people, particularly young professionals, leaving the country,” sighs Romero.

The number of Venezuelans residing outside of the country nearly doubled during the term of Chavez, to almost 2 million people. Venezuela has already seen several waves of young professionals and entrepreneurs leave, the most significant populations having moved to Spain, the United States, Panama and Colombia.

Once outside of the country, many emigrants do not bother to register to vote, claiming that beaurocratic red tape is too prohibitive. One often-cited example was the closure of the Venezuelan consulate in Miami, Florida in early 2012. The city, which has one of the highest concentrations of Venezuelans living outside of Venezuela, has over 20,000 registered voters. The next closest polling station for them is now in New Orleans, some 860 miles away.

Plan B

The margin of loss and the degree to which the Capriles campaign contests such a loss could influence not only a wave of emigration, but also the willingness of voters to remain faithful to the party. “

Last time we had no Plan B,” explains Juan Guerrero, a coordinator for the Primero Justicia party. “This time we are prepared to make sure nothing happens under the table. If we see irregularities, we are now prepared to fight them, and not concede defeat unfairly.”

Many see the Capriles campaign has having moved from adolescence to adulthood, no longer naïve and ready to accept any verdict from the CNE. This translates into an almost certain battle in the days after the April 14 election. “There was enormous fraud during the Oct. 7 election,” laments writer Tatiana Escobar, “If Capriles wins, the government will not hand power over willingly and Venezuela will face a very tough week ahead.”

However, should Capriles pass the hurdles his campaign is gearing up for, the expectations for his first year in office are high. The primary difference, many hope, is that foreign investment will return to the country. According to Escobar, over the last 14 years, over 4,000 private companies have closed. “It won’t be overnight, but a Capriles victory will signal to them that it’s safe to re-open.”

Economics

Beyond the politics of the April 14 election, one eventuality that either president will have to deal with is Venezuela’s tough economic situation.

“Our country’s national reserves have been lowered by very high public spending,” says Romero. “It will be a very tough initial year for whomever wins; adjustments will be necessary.” Massive debts are to be paid off within the next year, including to China.  The next president will have to figure out a way to adjust spending without hurting the population, already suffering from a recent currency devaluation.

After many rejections from Chavistas, unwilling to go on the record about the future of Venezuela, Antonio Mendoza, a government architect at the Simon Bolivar Musical Foundation, had some thoughts to share. When asked if he knew that Venezuela owed massive debts to China this year he replied: “Venezuela no longer has a direct relation with the United States.”

Finally in response to the question: is it normal, within a democratic government for a president to name his own successor? “That’s a good question,” he mused, “no… tobe honest, no, I can’t think of any recent examples, except for maybe North Korea.”